Principle: We suck at making decisions.
I recently pivoted away from one business to pursue another.
I told my friend who lives in SF (you know the type: exact, introspective, holds your feet to the fire) who then asked me how I’d come to that decision.
I’m not a total idiot. I did not say, “it just felt right.”
But I am an idiot. My explanation was like discarded twine: loose but still knotted in some areas, frayed at both ends. I didn’t have a single, clear-cut, proof-based reason to speak about.
It’s because I suck at thinking critically, so I “trust my gut” a lot.
It’s one of my greatest weaknesses, and I don’t think I’m the only one.
Tactics
Just doing the following will increase your decision-making ability by 2-3 times that of your competitors.
Set a trigger - come up with a dollar amount that - when on the line - signifies the need for serious thinking. The trigger is anything above that number. Mine is half my net worth. This trigger may only come up once or twice a year.
Block out time - if the trigger goes off, schedule 2 full hours. Seriously. The only way to make disproportionately better decisions is to take a disproportionate amount of time thinking critically.
Fill out your Critical Decision google doc, and take the full 2 hours.
The Critical Decision Doc
(Copy/paste these questions into your own doc)
Question 1: Why am I doing this? You only get 140 characters to explain
Question 2: What alternatives did I consider?
Question 3: What am I feeling? (give yourself some options to pick from: extreme fear, pessimism, neutral, boredom, greed, fatigue, extreme greed, FOMO)
Question 4: How long have I been thinking about this?
Question 5: Who and what tipped me over the edge?
Question 6: What are the secondary benefits of this? (sleep better, feel more pride, dislike people I work with less, etc.)
Question 7: If I took away all those secondary benefits, would I still do it?
Question 8: What makes me think I’m right?
Question 9: What’s the upside if I’m right?
Question 10: What makes me think I’m wrong?
Question 11: What’s the downside if I’m wrong?
Question 12: What follow-up decision should I make to make this decision more successful?
Question 13: How do I predict this is going to play out?
Question 14: What date will I revisit this?
Question 15 (answer on revisit date): Was I right? What does that teach me?
Use this sort of thinking when handling big, potentially life-changing decisions, and you’ll be miles ahead of your competitors on the learning curve.
Habits
Begin looking for reason to use this decision doc.
Don’t get bogged down thinking like this over which cup of coffee to bring your team, but make sure to use it when it counts.
God speed,
Mike
Today’s inspiration: The Decision Register